Well, here are some thoughts before the third debate. It’s become clear that the first debate did something very rare – it changed the campaign dynamic. As much as I’d like to think that was because Kerry did a great job, I think it was more that Bush did such a horrible job. That clanking you heard was the scales falling from undecided voter’s eyes.
Since that debate, the new dynamic has been a dead heat. One poll will show Bush ahead, another Kerry, a third a complete tie. This means that the second debate didn’t convince anyone new to change their mind…or to change their mind back. If the third debate goes the same way, this dynamic will likely last until November 2nd, which means the ground game in each state will decide who wins.

Unless someone scores a knockout tomorrow night.

A knockout in a presidential debate is a very rare thing. In fact, I’ve only ever seen one in a vice presidential debate – Bentsen nailing Quayle for comparing himself to Jack Kennedy. 16 years later, that one still zings. Scoring a knockout isn’t the same as ‘beating’ your opponent. It means making them look so small and pathetic even their supporters have to acknowledge it. Now, I think Kerry has the capacity to do it, and he certainly as the ammunition to do it with. If he’s gonna do it, Wednesday night would be the perfect time. Now, it may be that Kerry thinks that it’s too risky to do, that this new dynamic is actually not so bad. Or – it may be that Joe Lockhart and the Clinton people who have been helping Kerry in the last three weeks have prepped him with certain circumstances where he can unleash the haymaker. I would love to see that happen – it would be a kind of political perfect storm – but we’ll have to see. But it’s a measure of how much this race has changed since before the first debate that I’m now hoping for Kerry to put Bush away rather than just keep in contention.

Oh, and one other thing - Kerry really should use Bush's 'he can run, but he cannot hide' line against him.