The Nature of Reality

Okay, I'll post one more time before election night, but this is gonna be the big one. I want to talk about reality here because I believe it is at the heart of this election campaign. If Bush wins, then fantasy will have trumped reality. That's not to say that John Kerry is the arbiter of reality - I'm sure he has some odd ideas or assumptions.But Bush? That boy is as crazy as a shithouse rat.

Lets start by defining Reality. One might think that this would be difficult, but I'm very smart and I've put in the hours. There's a multitude of ways to go, but this one works best, I think: Reality is that which, when you stop thinking about it, doesn't go away.

Allow me to explain. Lets say that you're a mentally ill person. Lets say that you are deluded to such a degree that you believe you are invincible. You decide to cross a busy street, paying scant attention to the 18-wheeler truck barreling toward you. In your particular reality, that semi can't hurt you.What happens? I'll tell you what happens. You get turned into a flesh pancake, irregardless of what you choose to believe.

Objective Reality and subjective reality often diverge, and when that happens, objective reality always wins. In George W. Bush's universe, the truck didn't hit you, and if it did, it shouldn't be reported, becuase that only undermines the crossing the street effort, and even if it did hit you,that only proves his point that we all need to cross the highway in front of semis, and heck,crossing the street is hard work, and why do you hate America?

Bush's entire campaign is based on denying reality. In his universe, Iraq had WMD, Saddam was behind 9/11, we have enough troops on the ground in the middle east,and John Kerry is a liberal whiner. In Bush's reality, the economy is strong and getting stronger, in spite of a deficit in the past 4 years that outweighs cumulative deficits from the previous 200. You read that right. In Bush's reality, if you point out that there's a semi coming, you're putting the troops in danger,even though hes the one who sent them into harm's way for weapons which don't exist. In Bush's reality, he's the hero of the hour, even though its obvious he can't admit mistakes or take responsibility for them, pretty much two requisites for those who want to be heroes.

None of this means that Bush can't win. He could. But I honestly think that the only way he can win is if he is able to convince Americans his fantasy is correct. It's possible, but not likely. To break it down, lets go to the polls.

The first thing to know about the polls is: forget the 'Bush up by 3' or 'Bush ahead by 1' headlines. Those headlines are created because to sell papers, there needs to be a loser and a winner. The science of polls tells us that whenever an incumbent president's approval is below 50%, he's in trouble. Why? Because since 1960, undecided voters break for the challenger over the incumbent at a rate of 86%. That means that the key stat is, how many points under 50% is Bush on election day? At the moment, every poll has Bush under 50, with his best showing being 49% and his worst showing being 46%. All good news for Kerry. Now the fact that 49% of the American electorate believes the fantasy Bush is trowelling out is scary, but the good news is that if you have concluded that he's full of shit, you're very unlikely to vote for the man.

So there you have it. If the public rejects fantasy, this time next week, we will have a new president elect. Lets hope the above column is grounded in reality. :)