The Oscars...how they’ll go.

I saw Million Dollar Baby the other night and firmly believe that it should win best picture. However, I’m pretty sure that The Aviator will win it. Why do I think that? Two reasons. Firstly, Martin Scorcese is probably the greatest American Director to NOT have an Oscar (apart from Orson Welles). The fact he doesn’t have one is an embarrassment to the Academy, even though, by all accounts, The Aviator is far from his best film. The Oscars have always been partly about make-up calls. The examples are endless. Russell Crowe loses for The Insider, which he thoroughly deserved, and wins the next year for…Gladiator. Now, I love Gladiator, and I think Russell Crowe was great in it, but the best actor of the year? No way. Or how about Denzel Washington? He loses for The Hurricane, and wins… for Training Day. Again, he was good in Training Day, but not THAT good. So yeah, the Academy will honor The Aviator to make up for ignoring Taxi Driver and Goodfellas. Unless they split Best Picture and Best Director, and give Marty the Best Director nod. An outside shot, but possible.

The second reason they’ll stay away from Million Dollar Baby is because of controversy. I’m not gonna spoil the movie (as many have), but suffice to say that Clint Eastwood’s character does something that many people find deeply immoral. Now, whether or not it IS deeply immoral I’m not getting into here, but that really isn’t the point. Enough people are ‘outraged’ to make it a little risky to honor. Which is a real shame, because it’s a phenomenal movie.

Best Actor will almost certainly go to Jamie Foxx, who apparently is great in Ray. I haven’t seen it but I have to problem with that. Best Actress I would love to see go to Hilary Swank, but I doubt it will, because of the aforementioned controversy, and also because of a makeup call for Annette Bening, who lost to Swank when she was nominated for American Beauty.

The screenplay awards are wide open. I’m rooting for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.

Animated Feature should hopefully go to The Incredibles, which I think is far superior to Shreck 2.

Visual Effects should be a lock for Spider Man 2. Art direction will probably go to The Aviator.

The whole show should be interesting because Chris Rock is hosting this year and IU have a feeling he’s going to want to shock people a little bit. We shall see.