Change in Mood

Lately, I've been feeling a puff of wind, a barely perceptible flutter, that has given me a lot of hope. Ten days ago the presidential race felt static and stale, as if it were already over. The CBS scandal had hit, and had effectively intercepted an opportunity to hurt Bush over the National Guard issue. All across the country, progressives were hitting their foreheads in frustration. But the last couple of days, I've been heartened by a couple of things. First, the polls are tightening up again. This is good news. To me, this shows the Bush campaign's main weakness. They have to keep distracting people, and it's tough to do that all the way until the election. When people start really looking at the issues (mainly Iraq, but also the deficit), it's tough to argue that Bush appears to be governing from fantasyland. Before the GOP convention, the race was tied, essentially. Then those swing voters went away. But, as the swing voters, by definition, are stupid,they need to be constantly tended. Otherwise, little things like a 500 billion dollar deficit or 1029 US deaths in iraq start to make them feel weird. So the Thursday debate is important. I think Kerry has to 'win'. By that I mean, I have to think he won. Unless Bush feels he has been damaged in some way, he can continue to be the evasive, smirking, actor-in-chief he has been this entire campaign. If he actually has to debate the facts - well, then Kerry has a shot. If he loses-then it's pretty much all over.

Gulp.